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Volume 6 • Number 1 | March 2022

Does the monetary policy have any short-run and long-run effect on economic growth? A developing and a developed country perspective

Md. Sayemul Islam, Md. Emran Hossain, Sudipto Chakrobortty, and Nishat Sultana Ema

20/04/2022 276 1 0
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ARDL model Monetary policy Economic growth Granger causality Bangladesh United Kingdom

Abstract:

Purpose – The study aims to empirically examine the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth, as well as to explore the long-run and the short-run effect of monetary policy on the economic growth of a developing country (Bangladesh) and a developed country (the United Kingdom).

Design/methodology/approach – Depending on data availability, the study employed secondary data covering the period of 1980–2019. The augmented Dickey–Fuller test and the Phillips–Perron test were used for the stationarity test. Further, the F-bounds test was run to justify the long-run relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. Thereafter, long-run coefficients were revealed from the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and short-run coefficients from the error correction model. Furthermore, the vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach was employed to demonstrate the causality of studied variables. Lastly, different diagnostics tests ensured the robustness of the models.

Findings – F-bounds test outcomes suggest that monetary policy has a long-run relationship with economic growth in both countries. Long-run coefficients revealed that money supply has a positive long-run impact on economic growth in both countries. Unlike the UK, the exchange rate exhibits an adverse effect on the economic growth of Bangladesh. The bank rate seems to promote economic growth for the UK. Findings also depict that increase in lending interest rates hurts the economic growth for both countries. Besides, the short-run coefficients portray random effects at different lags in both cases. Lastly, causality among studied variables is revealed using the VECM Granger causality approach.

Originality/value – The novelty of this study lies in consideration of both developing and developed countries in the same study.

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JEL classification: DOI 10.1108/AJEB-02-2021-0014

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