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Volume 6 • Number 1 | March 2022

Impacts of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam: time-varying vs fixed coefficient cointegrations

Pham Dinh Long, Bui Quang Hien, and Pham Thi Bich Ngoc

20/04/2022 105 0 0
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Time-varying cointegration Fixed coefficient cointegration Inflation Gold price Exchange rate

Abstract:

Purpose – The paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.

Design/methodology/approach – Using cointegration techniques with fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient, the study exams the impacts of inflation in models and compares the results through coefficient estimates.

Findings – A significant inflation impacts are found with the time-varying cointegration but not with the fixed coefficient cointegration models. Moreover, monetary policy affects exchange rate not only directly via its instruments as money supply and interest rate but indirectly via inflation. Also, interest rate is one of the determinants of gold price.

Originality/value – To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use time-varying cointegration to analyze the impact of inflation on the gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam. Gold price and exchange rate fluctuations are always the essential and striking issues, which have been emphasized by economists and policymakers. In macroeconometric researches, cointegration models are often used to analyze the long-term relations between variables. Attentionally, applied models show a limitation when estimating coefficients are fixed. This characteristic might not really match with the data properties and the variation of the economy. Currently, time-varying cointegration models are emerging method to solve the above issue.

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JEL classification: C32,E41

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