SỐ 212 | Tháng 11/2023
Liệu ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô có thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế? Một số bằng chứng kinh tế lượng từ các nước SAARC
Md. Nur Alam Siddik
Tóm tắt:
Mục đích - Mục đích chính của nghiên cứu này là xem xét ảnh hưởng của ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô đến tăng trưởng kinh tế của các quốc gia SAARC (Hiệp hội Hợp tác Khu vực Nam Á).
Thiết kế/phương pháp/cách tiếp cận - Sử dụng dữ liệu bảng giai đoạn 1991–2020, phân tích hồi quy tác động cố định, bình phương tối thiểu thông thường gộp và các kỹ thuật phương pháp mô men tổng quát đã được tiến hành để chứng minh liệu ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô có góp phần vào tăng trưởng kinh tế hay không. Hơn nữa, thử nghiệm phụ thuộc cắt ngang, thử nghiệm nghiệm đơn vị, phân tích tương quan và thử nghiệm quan hệ nhân quả granger đã được thực hiện.
Những phát hiện - Những phát hiện chắc chắn chỉ ra rằng lạm phát có tác động tiêu cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế, điều này cho thấy mức độ bất ổn kinh tế vĩ mô thấp hơn sẽ thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế của các nước. Nghiên cứu này cũng quan sát thấy rằng đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài, tín dụng trong nước dành cho khu vực tư nhân, trao đổi tiền tệ và sự khác biệt về thể chế giữa các quốc gia có mối liên hệ tích cực trong khi lực lượng lao động có mối tương quan nghịch với tăng trưởng kinh tế.
Tính nguyên bản/giá trị - Những phát hiện thực nghiệm của nghiên cứu này cho thấy sự ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô có tác động đáng kể đến tăng trưởng kinh tế. Kết quả của nghiên cứu này có những đóng góp vượt trội cho các nhà hoạch định chính sách nhằm đạt được tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững.
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Does Macroeconomic Stability Promote Economic Growth? Some Econometric Evidence from SAARC Countries
Abstract:
Purpose - The main purpose of this research is to examine the influence of macroeconomic stability on economic growth of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries.
Design/methodology/approach - Using panel data of 1991–2020, fixed effect regression analysis, pooled ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments techniques have been conducted to demonstrate whether macroeconomic stability contributes to economic growth. Moreover, cross-sectional dependency test, unit root test, correlation analysis and granger causality tests have been run.
Findings - Robust findings indicate that inflation has negative impacts on economic growth which indicates that lower level of macroeconomic instability promotes countries’ economic growth. This study also observed that foreign direct investment, domestic credit delivered to private sector, currency exchange and institutional difference across countries are affirmatively connected while labor force is negatively associated with economic growth.
Originality/value - Empirical findings of this study signify that macroeconomic stability have significant effects on economic growth. Findings of this study have superior contributions for the policy makers to achieve sustainable economic growth.