Số 181 | Tháng 4/2021
Ảnh hưởng của FDI đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các nước đang phát triển: Vai trò của phát triển tài chính
Vũ Thị Hải Minh, Phạm Thị Tuyết Trinh
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu phân tích vai trò của phát triển tài chính (PTTC) đối với tác động kích thích tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) của dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) tại các nước đang phát triển. Mô hình tự hồi quy ngưỡng (TAR) được sử dụng để phân tích dữ liệu của 23 nền kinh tế trong giai đoạn 1995–2019. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy tồn tại giá trị ngưỡng của PTTC làm thay đổi ảnh hưởng của FDI đến TTKT. Mức ngưỡng tìm được đối với mức PTTC đo lường bằng tỷ lệ M2 so với GDP và tín dụng so với GDP lần lượt là 51,839 và 24,593. FDI chỉ có ảnh hưởng tích cực đến TTKT khi PTTC bằng và vượt qua mức ngưỡng. Kết quả này khẳng định cho vai trò của PTTC như một nhân tố hấp thụ để nền kinh tế hưởng lợi từ các tác động của FDI.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
- Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64(1), 89–112.
- Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. & Sayek, S. (2009). FDI, Productivity and Financial Development, Harvard Business School and NBER. The World Economy, 111-135.
- Ang, J. B. (2009). Financial development and the FDI-growth nexus: the Malaysian experience. Applied Economics, 41(13), 1595-1601.
- Azman-Saini, W.N.W, Law, S.H. & Ahmad, A.H. (2010). FDI and Economic Growth: New Evidence on the Role of Financial Markets. Economics Letters, 107(2),211-213.
- Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, 66, 47-78
- Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
- Balasubramanyam, V. N., Salisu, M & Sapsford, D. (1996). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries. Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, 106(434), 92-105.
- Bokati, L. & Kreinovich, V. (2019). Maximum Entropy Approach to Portfolio Optimization: Economic Justification of an Intuitive Diversity Idea. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 3(2).
- Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J and Lee, J.W. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1,Jun), 115-135.
- Carbonell, J. B. & Werner, R. A. (2018). Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain. Economic Geography, 94:4, 425-456.
- Carkovic, M. V., & Levine, R. (2002). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth?. University of Minnesota Department of Finance Working Paper. Available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTFR/Resources/fdi.pdf, accessed on December 17th, 2015.
- Cobb, C .W. & Douglas, P. H. (1928). A Theory of Production. American Economic Review, 18, 139-165.
- Choe, J. (2003). Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth? Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 44-57.
- De Mello, Jr. L. (1999). Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data. Oxford Economic Papers, 51(1), 133-151.
- Dougherty, C. & Jorgenson, D.W. (1996), International Comparisons of the Sources of Economic Growth. American Economic Review, 86, 2, 25–29.
- Easterly, W. (2003). Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (3), 23-48.
- Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1076-1107.
- Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effect in non-dinamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Jourrnal of Econometrics, 93, 345-368.
- Hermes, N., & Lensink, R. (2003). Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Studies 40(1), 142– 163.
- Hsiao, F. S. T & Hsiao, M. W. (2006). FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia - Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses. Journal of Asian Economics, 17(6),1082-1106.
- Johnson, A. (2006). The Effects of FDI Inflows on Host Country Economic Growth, No 58, Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation from Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies
- Keller, W. (2010). International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers. Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, 2, 793-829.
- Leandro, R., Yin, K. & Li, X. (2017). The Relationship between FDI, Economic Growth and Financial Development in Cabo Verde. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(5), 132.
- Lee, C. & Chang, C. (2009). FDI, financial development, and economic growth: international evidence. Journal of Applied Economics, Vol XII, 2 (November 2009), 249-271.
- Mankiw, N.G. (1995). The Growth of Nations. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 26, (1), 275-326.
- Olagbaju, I. O., & Akinlo, A. E. (2018). FDI And Economic Growth Relationship In Sub-Saharan Africa: Is The Domestic Financial System A Significant Intermediator? Archives of Business Research, 6(5), 90-112.
- Rodríguez-Clare, A. (1996). Multinationals, Linkages, and Economic Development. The American Economic Review, 86(4) (Sep., 1996), 852-873.
- Saggi, K. (2002). Trade, foreign direct investment, and international technology transfer: A survey, The World Bank Research Observer 17(2), 191-235.
- Saint-Paul, G. (1992). Technological Choice, Financial Markets and Economic Development. European Economic Review, 36(4), 763-81.
- Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65-94.
- Solow, R. (1957). Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39 (3), 312-320.
- Tinbergen, J. (1942). Zur Theorie der langfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung (On the Theory of Long-term Development), Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 55, 511–549 (in German).
- Wang, C., Wang, T., Trafimow, D. & Chen, J. (2019). Extending a Priori Procedure to Two Independent Samples under Skew Normal Settings. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 3(2).
- Wu, J. & Hsu, C. (2008). Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from a Threshold Regression Analysis. Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, 15(12), 1-10.
Influence of FDI on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Financial Development
Abstract:
The study analyzes the role of financial development in the economic growth stimulating effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in developing countries. The Threshold AutoRegressive model (TAR) was used to analyze tha data of 23 economies over the period 1995–2019. The results show that there is a threshold value of financial development which changes the effect of FDI on economic growth. The thresholds found for financial development as measured by the ratio of M2 to GDP and credit to GDP are 51,839 and 24,593 respectively. FDI only has a positive effect on economic growth when financial development is equal to or greater than the threshold value. This result confirms the role of financial development as an absorbing factor for the economy to benefit from the effects of FDI.