SỐ 184 | THÁNG 7/2021
Nợ công và tăng trưởng kinh tế: bằng chứng đương đại từ một nền kinh tế đang phát triển
Sam Kris Hilton
Tóm tắt:
Mục đích – Xét đến sự gia tăng liên tục của nợ công của các nước đang phát triển (đặc biệt là Ghana) với tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế không ổn định trong nhiều thập kỷ qua và tình trạng vay nợ gần đây do tác động của COVID 19, bài viết này nhằm mục đích kiểm tra mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa các khoản nợ công và tăng trưởng kinh tế theo thời gian.
Thiết kế/phương pháp/cách tiếp cận – Bài viết sử dụng mô hình nhân quả Granger dựa trên độ trễ phân tán tự hồi quy đa biến (ARDL) để kiểm định mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa nợ công và tăng trưởng kinh tế [tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP)]. Dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian hàng năm kéo dài từ năm 1978–2018 được lấy từ cơ sở dữ liệu Chỉ số Phát triển của Ngân hàng Thế giới và Cơ sở dữ liệu của Vụ Tài chính IMF và WEO.
Kết quả – Kết quả cho thấy nợ công không có mối quan hệ nhân quả với GDP trong ngắn hạn nhưng có quan hệ nhân quả Granger một chiều từ nợ công đến GDP trong dài hạn. Một lần nữa, chi tiêu đầu tư có mối quan hệ nhân quả hai chiều tiêu cực với GDP trong ngắn hạn nhưng chúng có mối quan hệ nhân quả hai chiều tích cực trong dài hạn. Ngược lại, không tồn tại mối quan hệ nhân quả ngắn hạn giữa chi tiêu tiêu dùng của chính phủ và GDP nhưng có quan hệ nhân quả Granger dài hạn chạy từ chi tiêu tiêu dùng của chính phủ đến GDP. Cuối cùng, nợ công có tác động tích cực đến tỷ lệ lạm phát trong ngắn hạn.
Ý nghĩa thực tiễn – Các phát hiện cho thấy (các) chính phủ phải đảm bảo kỷ luật tài khóa cao để làm tiền đề cho việc sử dụng hiệu quả các khoản vay gần đây, nghĩa là các khoản vay nên được sử dụng cho các dự án được ưu tiên cao (tốt nhất là chi tiêu đầu tư) được đánh giá tốt và tự duy trì để đóng góp tích cực vào GDP.
Tính mới/giá trị – Bài báo này cung cấp những phát hiện đương đại để bổ sung thêm các tài liệu hiện có về nợ công và tăng trưởng kinh tế bằng cách sử dụng các biến số và mô hình thực nghiệm, mà các nghiên cứu trước đây không thể đề cập đầy đủ trong quan điểm của một nước đang phát triển và khẳng định rằng nợ công chỉ đóng góp vào GDP trong dài hạn.
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Public debt and economic growth: contemporary evidence from a developing economy
Abstract:
Purpose
Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO.
Findings
The results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run.
Practical implications
The findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP.
Originality/value
This paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.