Số 224 | Tháng 11/2024
Khu vực ngân hàng và tăng trưởng kinh tế trong kỷ nguyên chuyển đổi số: hiểu biết sâu sắc về khả năng tối đa và mô hình phương trình cấu trúc Bayes
Abdullah Murrar, Bara Asfour, Veronica Paz
Tóm tắt:
Mục đích - Trong kỷ nguyên số, ngành ngân hàng đã chuyển mình trở thành cầu nối trung gian đắc lực, kết nối hiệu quả các đơn vị thừa và thiếu. Bối cảnh năng động này trao quyền cho người tiết kiệm để đảm bảo tài chính của họ và tạo ra lợi nhuận, đồng thời cho phép các doanh nghiệp và cá nhân tiếp cận vốn để đầu tư và thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế. Nghiên cứu này khám phá mối quan hệ giữa các khía cạnh phát triển ngân hàng - được thể hiện bằng tài sản và nợ cơ bản, vốn ngân hàng (vốn cốt lõi và dự trữ bắt buộc) và tăng trưởng kinh tế được đo bằng các thành phần của tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP).
Thiết kế/phương pháp/cách tiếp cận - Nghiên cứu đã tổng hợp bảng cân đối kế toán hàng tháng của các ngân hàng kỹ thuật số trong khoảng thời gian 20 năm, tạo ra bảng cân đối tổng hợp hàng tháng phản ánh tình hình tài chính của tất cả các ngân hàng kỹ thuật số trong nền kinh tế Palestine. Nghiên cứu sử dụng cả khả năng tối đa và mô hình phương trình cấu trúc Bayes để đo lường mối quan hệ nhân quả của bảng cân đối hợp nhất với các thành phần riêng lẻ của GDP.
Kết quả - Kết quả cho thấy tài sản chính của ngân hàng (đầu tư và cho vay) và nợ phải trả (tiền gửi) giải thích chung cho vốn của ngân hàng. Đầu tư và cho vay thể hiện mối tương quan nghịch đáng kể với vốn ngân hàng, trong khi tiền gửi thể hiện tác động tích cực. Điều này dẫn đến một kết luận cơ bản rằng một tỷ lệ đáng kể lợi nhuận giữ lại trong khu vực ngân hàng được tái đầu tư, thúc đẩy mở rộng và tăng trưởng. Ngoài ra, kết quả cho thấy mối quan hệ đáng kể giữa vốn ngân hàng và các thành phần GDP khác nhau, bao gồm tiêu dùng cá nhân, tổng đầu tư và xuất khẩu ròng ( ). Tuy nhiên, trong khi mối quan hệ giữa vốn ngân hàng và chi tiêu chính phủ là không đáng kể trong ước tính khả năng tối đa, ước tính Bayesian cho thấy tác động tích cực nhưng nhẹ của vốn ngân hàng đến chi tiêu chính phủ.
Tính độc đáo/giá trị - Nghiên cứu này nổi bật nhờ khám phá độc đáo về mối quan hệ phức tạp giữa các khía cạnh phát triển của ngành ngân hàng, tài sản và nợ cơ bản cũng như tác động của chúng đối với vốn ngân hàng trong kỷ nguyên kỹ thuật số. Nó cung cấp những hiểu biết mới bằng cách chia kết nối này thành các chiều và cấu trúc cụ thể, sử dụng bộ dữ liệu toàn diện trong hai thập kỷ bao gồm hồ sơ ngân hàng kỹ thuật số.
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Banking sector and economic growth in the digital transformation era: insights from maximum likelihood and Bayesian structural equation modeling
Abstract:
Purpose
In the digital era, the banking sector has transformed into a powerful intermediary, effectively connecting surplus and deficit units. This dynamic landscape empowers savers to secure their finances and generate returns, while simultaneously enabling businesses and individuals to access capital for investment and promoting economic growth. This study explores the relationships among banking development dimensions – represented by primary assets and liabilities, bank capital (core capital and required reserves) and economic growth as measured by components of gross domestic product (GDP).
Design/methodology/approach
The study consolidated monthly balance sheets from digital banks over a 20-year period, resulting in an aggregate monthly balance sheet that reflects the financial position of all digital banks in the Palestinian economy. The research employs both maximum likelihood and Bayesian structural equation modeling to measure the causal pathways of the consolidated balance sheet with the individual components of GDP.
Findings
The results revealed that bank main assets (investments and loans) and liabilities (deposits) collectively explain for 97% of bank capital. Investments and loans demonstrate significant negative correlations with bank capital, while deposits exhibit a positive impact. This leads to a fundamental conclusion that a substantial proportion of retained earnings within the banking sector is reinvested, fueling expansion and growth. Additionally, the results showed a significant relationship between bank capital and various GDP components, including private consumption, gross investment and net exports (p = 0.000). However, while the relationship between bank capital and government spending was insignificant in the maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation revealed a slight yet positive impact of bank capital on government spending.
Originality/value
This research stands out due to its unique exploration of the intricate relationship between bank sector development dimensions, primary assets and liabilities and their impact on bank capital in the digital era. It offers fresh insights by dividing this connection into specific dimensions and constructs, utilizing a comprehensive two-decade dataset covering the digital banks records.