SỐ 187 | THÁNG 10/2021
Mối quan hệ giữa thương mại điện tử B2C và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Diệp
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu tìm hiểu sự tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) dưới góc nhìn từ phát triển thương mại điện tử (TMĐT) B2C (Business to Customer) thông qua áp dụng mô hình VAR để xem xét mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa TTKT (GDP), số lượng thanh toán giao dịch qua mạng bằng thẻ tín dụng và TMĐT B2C, với mẫu gồm 60 quan sát từ quý 1/2006 đến quý 4/2020. Nghiên cứu đã xác định mối quan hệ giữa TMĐT B2C và TTKT có tương quan hai chiều. Hơn nữa, các cú sốc về TTKT gia tăng cũng có tác động lớn đến số lượng thanh toán giao dịch qua mạng bằng thẻ tín dụng và TMĐT B2C. Bài viết cũng đưa ra một số khuyến nghị với các nhà hoạch định chính sách của Việt Nam nhằm định hướng các chính sách vĩ mô phù hợp, có thể tận dụng tốt đòn bẩy TMĐT B2C để thúc đẩy TTKT; qua đó đạt được mục tiêu phát triển kinh tế bền vững, ổn định tình hình kinh tế-xã hội.
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The Relationship between B2C E-Commerce and Economic Growth in Vietnam
Abstract:
The study explores economic growth from the perspective of the development of e-commerce from Business to Customer (B2C) by using the VAR model to assess the causal relationship between Economic Growth (GDP), number of online payment transactions by credit card and B2C e-commerce with a sample of 60 observations from the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The study has identified the relationship between B2C e-commerce and Vietnam's economic growth is correlated two-way. Furthermore, an increase in economic growth shock is an event that have a large impact on the amount of online payment by credit card, and hence also an increase of B2C e-commerce. In this paper, the author provides recommendations for Vietnamese policymakers in order to have the appropriate macro policy orientations that can make good use of B2C e-commerce leverage to promote economic growth, thereby achieving the goal of sustainable economic development, stabilizing the socio-economic situation.