Số 219 | Tháng 6/2024
Toàn cầu hóa và chi tiêu công: Bằng chứng từ quá trình hội nhập tại Việt Nam
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Nga
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu đánh giá mối quan hệ giữa toàn cầu hóa (TCH) và chi tiêu công tại Việt Nam giai đoạn từ sau năm thống nhất đất nước năm 1975 đến năm 2019. Bằng sử dụng cách tiếp cận Bayes cho bộ dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian của Việt Nam giai đoạn 1976–2019, kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy rằng về tổng thể cho toàn bộ giai đoạn, TCH có tác động ngược chiều đến chi tiêu công, phù hợp với giả thuyết hiệu quả, nhưng xét riêng theo thời kỳ, mối quan hệ này là ngược chiều đối với giai đoạn trước mở cửa kinh tế (1976–1985) và cùng chiều đối với giai đoạn sau mở cửa (1986–2019). Ngoài ra, GDP thực bình quân tương quan ngược chiều, trong khi tỷ lệ dân số phụ thuộc và dân số tương quan thuận chiều với chi tiêu công.
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Globalization and Public Spending: Evidence from Global Integration in Vietnam
Abstract:
The research assesses the correlation between globalization and public expenditure in Vietnam following the country's national reunification in 1975. Employing a Bayesian methodology on Vietnam's time-series dataset spanning from 1976 to 2019, the findings reveal a general negative impact of globalization on public spending. This result aligns with the efficiency hypothesis, constituting the main findings of the study. However, this relationship varies across subperiods: negative during the pre-opening period (1976-1985) and positive during the post-opening era (1986-2019). Furthermore, average real GDP correlates negatively with public expenditure, while the age dependency ratio and population exhibit positive correlations with this variable.