SỐ 196 | THÁNG 7/2022
Các yếu tố quyết định chênh lệch chủ quyền ở Sri Lanka: các yếu tố toàn cầu và các nguyên tắc cơ bản của từng quốc gia
Nirukthi Prathiba Kariyawasam, Prabhath Jayasinghe
Tóm tắt:
Mục đích nghiên cứu – Nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích và so sánh ảnh hưởng của các nguyên tắc cơ bản cụ thể của các quốc gia và các điều kiện toàn cầu đối với rủi ro chủ quyền của Sri Lanka trong giai đoạn mẫu 2006–2019 trong khi sử dụng lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc làm đại diện cho rủi ro chủ quyền.
Thiết kế/phương pháp/cách tiếp cận – Độ mạnh của các biến được đánh giá bằng cách sử dụng mô hình độ trễ phân tán hồi quy tự động (ARDL) để xác minh cả tác động ngắn hạn và dài hạn đối với chênh lệch chính phủ.
Kết quả – Nghiên cứu cho thấy rằng chênh lệch chủ quyền của Sri Lanka được định hình bởi cả các yếu tố cơ bản của đất nước và các yếu tố toàn cầu, mặc dù các yếu tố quyết định địa phương có xu hướng có ảnh hưởng lớn hơn khi hướng của các hệ số bị bỏ qua. Mặc dù tác động của hầu hết các biến phù hợp với kỳ vọng của các nhà nghiên cứu, thâm hụt ngân sách được phát hiện có hệ số âm bất thường, điều này có thể được giải thích bởi sự lạc quan của các nhà đầu tư đối với sự tham gia của Chính phủ vào động lực phát triển kinh tế sau chiến tranh trong giai đoạn lấy mẫu, cho phép Sri Lanka để thu hút tài trợ chi phí thấp
Hạn chế/ý nghĩa của nghiên cứu – Nghiên cứu loại trừ tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng sức khỏe do vi-rút corona đang diễn ra- 2019 (COVID-19) có thể làm sai lệch dữ liệu quá mức. Hơn nữa, nghiên cứu không nắm bắt được tác động của sự thay đổi trong tâm lý do thông tin thị trường, động lực nợ và thay đổi chính sách ở Sri Lanka.
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Determinants of sovereign spreads in Sri Lanka: global factors and country-specific fundamentals
Abstract:
Purpose
The study aims to analyze and compare the influence of country-specific fundamentals and global conditions on sovereign risk of Sri Lanka within the sample period of 2006–2019 while employing Treasury bond rates as proxy for sovereign risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The determinant powers of the variables are assessed using the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to verify both short- and long-run effects on sovereign spreads.
Findings
The study finds that Sri Lanka's sovereign spreads are shaped by both country fundamentals and global factors, though local determinants tend to have greater influence when the directions of coefficients are ignored. While the impact of most variables was in line with the researchers' expectations, fiscal deficit was found to have an unconventional negative coefficient which may be explained by investors' optimistic take on Government's involvement in post-war economic development drive during the sample period, enabling Sri Lanka to attract low-cost funding.
Research limitations/implications
The study excludes of impact of the ongoing coronavirus disease-2019 ( COVID-19) health crisis which may unduly distort the data. Further, the research does not capture the impact of change in sentiment owing to market information, debt dynamics and policy changes in Sri Lanka.
Practical implications
The study reveals that a sound monetary policy directed at preserving both the internal and external value of currency as well as a disciplined fiscal policy are imperative to manage Sri Lanka's sovereign risk, particularly in the face of global uncertainties.
Originality/value
The study adds to the literature by investigating the timely importance of a country's internal fundamentals against the global events. Furthermore, the research would complement the scarcity of research regarding that subject focused on the Sri Lankan economy, capturing the rapid variations in the fundamentals that the country has undergone since the end of the civil war while recognizing the growing influence of globalization over the recent years.