Mục đích – Nghiên cứu này nhằm mục đích nắm bắt “tác động lâu dài” của rủi ro tín dụng trong ngành ngân hàng Ấn Độ bằng cách sử dụng dữ liệu cấp ngân hàng kéo dài trong khoảng thời gian 19 năm kể từ 1998/ 1999 đến 2016/17. Bên cạnh đó, nghiên cứu cũng khám phá cách các biến kinh tế vĩ mô cụ thể của ngân hàng, ngành cụ thể cùng với cải cách quy định, thay đổi quyền sở hữu và khủng hoảng tài chính ảnh hưởng đến chất lượng tài sản của ngân hàng ở Ấn Độ.
Thiết kế/phương pháp/phương pháp tiếp cận – Sử dụng phương pháp tiếp cận thời điểm tổng quát hệ thống hai bước (GMM), nghiên cứu rút ra các yếu tố chính ảnh hưởng đến chất lượng tài sản của ngân hàng ở Ấn Độ.
Kết quả – Các kết quả thực nghiệm khẳng định thời gian tồn tại của rủi ro tín dụng giữa các ngân hàng Ấn Độ trong thời gian nghiên cứu. Điều này phản ánh rằng tỷ lệ vỡ nợ của ngân hàng dự kiến sẽ tăng trong năm hiện tại, nếu nó đã tăng trong năm ngoái do thời gian trễ liên quan đến quá trình thu hồi các khoản nợ quá khứ. Hơn nữa, lợi nhuận cao hơn, hiệu quả quản lý tốt hơn, thu nhập đa dạng hơn từ các hoạt động phi truyền thống, quy mô ngân hàng tối ưu, sàng lọc và giám sát tín dụng phù hợp và tuân thủ các quy định pháp luật sẽ giúp cải thiện chất lượng tín dụng của các ngân hàng Ấn Độ.
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This study aims to capture the “persistence effect” of credit risk in Indian banking industry using the bank-level data spanning over the period of 19 years from 1998/1999 to 2016/17. Alongside, the study explored how the bank-specific, industry-specific, macroeconomic variables alongside regulatory reforms, ownership changes and financial crisis affect the bank's asset quality in India.
Using two-step system generalized method of moment (GMM) approach, the study derives key factors that affect the bank's asset quality in India.
The empirical results confirm the time persistence of credit risk among Indian banks during study period. This reflects that bank defaults are expected to increase in the current year, if it had increased past year due to time lag involved in the process of recovery of past dues. Further, higher profitability, better managerial efficiency, more diversified income from nontraditional activities, optimal size of banks, proper credit screening and monitoring and adherence regulatory norms would help in improving the credit quality of Indian banks.
The practical implication drawn from the study is that nonaccumulation of nonperforming loans (NPLs), higher profitability, better managerial efficiency, more diversified income from nontraditional activities, optimal size of banks, proper credit screening and monitoring and adherence regulatory norms would help in improving the credit quality of Indian banks.
This study is probably the first one that identifies in addition to the current year, whether lag of bank industry-macroeconomic affects the level of NPLs of Indian banks. So far, such an analysis has received less attention with respect to Indian banking industry, especially immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.