SỐ 178+179 | THÁNG 01+02/2021
Chính sách kinh tế bất định từ Trung Quốc và đầu tư của các công ty thuộc khu vực Đông Nam Á
Mai Thị Thanh Trà, Trần Thị Hải Lý
Tóm tắt:
Bất ổn kinh tế quốc tế được quan tâm ngày càng nhiều hơn trong thời gian gần đây. Cùng với sự trỗi dậy mạnh mẽ của nền kinh tế Trung Quốc kèm theo bất ổn tiềm tàng, chính sách kinh tế (CSKT) bất định đến từ Trung Quốc đang thu hút sự chú ý của nhiều học giả (Zhang & ctg, 2019; Liu & Zhang, 2019; Zeng, Zhong, & He, 2019; Zhanga & ctg, 2015; Wang, Chen, & Huang, 2014). Nghiên cứu này xem xét ảnh hưởng của sự bất định trong CSKT của Trung Quốc lên đầu tư của các công ty thuộc khu vực Đông Nam Á. Mẫu nghiên cứu bao gồm 3.506 công ty thuộc sáu nước Đông Nam Á, bao gồm Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thái Lan và Việt Nam giai đoạn 1996–2018. Sử dụng mô hình hồi quy hiệu ứng cố định cho dữ liệu bảng, nhóm tác giả tìm thấy sự bất định trong CSKT của Trung Quốc có tác động ngược chiều đến đầu tư của các công ty thuộc sáu nước Đông Nam Á. Kết quả này nhất quán giữa các phương pháp ước lượng thay thế.
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Economic Policy Uncertainties from China and Investment of Southeast Asian Companies
Abstract:
International economic uncertainties have recently received significant attention. Researchers have been interested in economic policy uncertainties from China, in the context of Chinese economy’s strong emergence associated with the possible instabilities. This paper examines the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment in Southeast Asia. The sample includes 3,506 companies from six Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam during the period of 1996 – 2018. Using a fixed effect regression model for panel data, we find that uncertainty in China’s economic policies has a negative impact on investment of Southeast Asian companies. The result is robust after controlling for endogeneity.