SỐ 205 | THÁNG 4/2023
Chính sách tiền tệ và rủi ro tín dụng ngân hàng tại Việt Nam
Nguyễn Đăng Quang, Đặng Văn Dân
Tóm tắt:
Bài báo phân tích tác động của chính sách tiền tệ (CSTT) lên rủi ro tín dụng của các ngân hàng thương mại (NHTM) Việt Nam giai đoạn 2008–2021 với ba biến CSTT khác nhau bao gồm tăng trưởng cung tiền, sai phân lãi suất tái cấp vốn và lãi suất tái chiết khấu của Ngân hàng Nhà nước (NHNN) Việt Nam. Các phát hiện của bài báo không ủng hộ quan điểm về kênh truyền dẫn CSTT thông qua rủi ro của ngân hàng; hay nói cách khác, CSTT nới lỏng không tác động tiêu cực đến hoạt động của ngân hàng dưới góc độ rủi ro tín dụng. Cụ thể, bài báo chỉ ra rằng, các ngân hàng có xu hướng đạt được mức độ an toàn tín dụng cao hơn khi nới lỏng CSTT. Kết luận này là vững và nhất quán với các phép đo rủi ro tín dụng khác nhau.
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Monetary Policy and Bank Credit Risk in Vietnam
Abstract:
The paper empirically analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the credit risk of Vietnamese commercial banks from 2008 to 2021. Using three different monetary policy measures, including the growth rate of money supply, the difference of refinancing rates and rediscounting rates of the central bank, the paper’s main findings do not support the view of the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy transmission. In other words, relaxing monetary policy does not harm the bank’s operations in terms of credit risk. More precisely, the paper shows that banks tend to achieve a higher level of credit safety in response to easing monetary policy. This conclusion is robust and consistent across different credit risk measures.