SỐ 200 | THÁNG 11/2022
Mức độ tài chính quá mức có thúc đẩy siêu lạm phát không?
Yogeeswari Subramaniam, Tajul Ariffin Masron
Tóm tắt:
Mục đích – Sử dụng một kỹ thuật ước tính ngưỡng sáng tạo, bài viết này cung cấp bằng chứng mới về mối quan hệ giữa tài chính và lạm phát với các mức độ tài chính khác nhau.
Thiết kế/phương pháp/cách tiếp cận – Mẫu dữ liệu bao gồm 10 quốc gia có lạm phát cao sử dụng dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian cho giai đoạn 1992–2020. 10 quốc gia này ghi nhận tỷ lệ lạm phát cao nhất thế giới trong năm 2017.
Kết quả – Kết quả cho thấy có một hiệu ứng ngưỡng đối với mối quan hệ lạm phát-tài chính. Trong khi tác động của tài chính luôn tích cực đối với các mô hình dưới ngưỡng và trên ngưỡng, độ sâu tài chính trên ngưỡng có xu hướng làm trầm trọng thêm mức độ lạm phát.
Ý nghĩa thực tiễn – Những kết quả này cho thấy độ sâu tài chính có thể là nguyên nhân gây ra lạm phát cao ở 10 quốc gia hàng đầu và do đó, không nhất thiết phải được hoan nghênh vì việc tăng giá quá nhanh có thể đảo ngược triển vọng tăng trưởng kinh tế. Tìm kiếm và lập chiến lược cho mức tài chính tối ưu là rất quan trọng trong việc tạo điều kiện ổn định giá cả và tăng trưởng kinh tế.
Tính mới/giá trị – Các tác giả tin rằng tác động của độ sâu tài chính đối với lạm phát được đặc trưng bởi mong muốn ở một mức độ nhất định và không mong muốn nếu tài trợ quá mức vượt quá mức tối ưu. Do đó, trong nghiên cứu này, các tác giả đã giới thiệu mô hình ngưỡng như một chiến lược tiềm năng để kết nối độ sâu tài chính và lạm phát.
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Does excessive degrees of financial depth push hyper-inflation?
Abstract:
Purpose
Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between finance and inflation with distinct levels of finance.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample consisted of 10 high inflation countries using time series data for the period of 1992–2020. These 10 countries recorded the world's highest inflation rates in 2017.
Findings
The findings demonstrate that there is a threshold effect on the finance–inflation relationship. Whilst the effects of finance are consistently positive for below and above the threshold models, financial depth above the threshold tends to aggravate the inflation level.
Practical implications
These results disclose that financial depth could be the cause of high inflation in the top 10 countries and thus, is not necessarily welcome as too rapid of a price increase may in turn reverse the prospect of economic growth. Searching and strategizing for the optimal level of financing is crucial in facilitating price stability and economic growth.
Originality/value
The authors believe that the effect of financial depth on inflation is characterised by being desirable to certain extent and undesirable if over-financing is beyond the optimum level. Therefore, in this study, the authors have introduced the threshold modelling as the potential strategy to connect financial depth and inflation.