Số 223 | Tháng 10/2024
Tác động của chi tiêu chính phủ đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam: Tuyến tính hay phi tuyến tính?
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Nga*
Tóm tắt:
Mối quan hệ giữa quyền lực tài khóa và tăng trưởng của một nền kinh tế có một ý nghĩa quan trọng từ cả góc nhìn lý thuyết cũng như thực nghiệm. Những kết quả thực nghiệm từ các mô hình thống kê tần suất trước đây không nhất quán. Bài viết này nhằm khám phá cả mối quan hệ tuyến tính và phi tuyến giữa chi tiêu chính phủ (CTCP) và tăng trưởng của nền kinh tế Việt Nam sử dụng một bộ dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian cho giai đoạn 1986-2019. Bằng việc thực hiện hồi quy hiệu ứng hỗn hợp Bayesian, nghiên cứu khám phá một mối quan hệ tuyến tính giữa hai yếu tố này. Kết quả nghiên cứu sẽ là một nền tảng thực nghiệm vững chắc và tin cậy cho việc ra quyết định trong chính sách tài khóa hướng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững tại Việt Nam.
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Impact of Government Spending on Economic Growth in Vietnam: Linearity or Non-Linearity?
Abstract:
The relationship between fiscal power and economic growth is of significant interest from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Previous findings based on frequentist models have been inconsistent, resulting in low accuracy. This study examines both the linear and non-linear relationships between government spending and economic growth using a time-series sample from Vietnam spanning 1986 to 2019. By employing Bayesian mixed-effects regressions, the study reveals a linear, monotonic connection between these two factors. The results offer a robust and reliable foundation for long-term fiscal policy decision-making in Vietnam aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth.