SỐ 209 | Tháng 8/2023
Ảnh hưởng của vốn đầu tư gián tiếp nước ngoài đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các nước đang phát triển: Vai trò của ổn định tài chính
Vũ Thị Hải Minh, Phạm Thị Tuyết Trinh
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu tập trung vào vai trò của ổn định tài chính đối với tác động của dòng vốn đầu tư gián tiếp nước ngoài (FPI) đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các nền kinh tế đang phát triển. Dữ liệu của 55 nền kinh tế trong giai đoạn 2010–2021 được sử dụng để phân tích bằng mô hình tự hồi qui ngưỡng (TAR). Nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng, tồn tại giá trị ngưỡng của ổn định tài chính làm tác động của FPI đến tăng trưởng kinh tế thay đổi. Mức ngưỡng tìm được có sự khác biệt khi ổn định tài chính được đo lường bằng FINSTAB1 và FINSTAB2, trong trường hợp có và không có biến tương tác. FPI chỉ có ảnh hưởng tích cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế khi ổn định tài chính đo bằng FINSTAB1 chạm và vượt qua mức ngưỡng, kết hợp với tác động của FINSTAB1. Khi ổn định tài chính được đo lường thông qua FINSTAB2 bằng và vượt mức ngưỡng, FPI có ảnh hưởng tích cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế. Kết quả này khẳng định vai trò của ổn định tài chính như một nhân tố hấp thụ các tác động tích cực của FPI.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
-
Ahmad, F., Draz, M. U., & Yang, S. (2015). Foreign Portfolio Inflows and Economic Growth: Evidence from ASEAN5 [SSRN Scholarly Paper]. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2613806
-
Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Do Foreign Direct and Portfolio Investments Affect Long-term Economic Growth in Central and Eastern Europe? Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 507-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00539-0
-
Albulescu, C. T., Briciu, L., & Coroiu, S. I. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in CEECs: the role of financial stability. Scientific Annals of the “Alexandru Ioan Cuza”. Economic Sciences Section, Special Issue, 1(2), 85-96.
-
Alfaro, L., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. & Sayek, S. (2009). FDI, Productivity and Financial Development, Harvard Business School and NBER. The World Economy, 111-135.
-
Anetor, F. O. (2020). Foreign Capital Inflows, Financial Development and Growth in Nigeria: A Structural VAR Approach. The Journal of Developing Areas, 54(3). https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2020.0025
-
Ang, J. B. (2009). Financial development and the FDI-growth nexus: the Malaysian experience. Applied Economics, 41:13, 1595-1601.
-
Azman-Saini, W.N.W, Law, S.H. & Ahmad, A.H. (2010). FDI and Economic Growth: New Evidence on the Role of Financial Markets. Economics Letters, 107(2), 211-213.
-
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, 66, 47-78
-
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22
-
Carkovic, M. V., & Levine, R. (2002). Does foreign direct investment accelerate economic growth? University of Minnesota Department of Finance Working Paper. Available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTFR/Resources/fdi.pdf, accessed on December 17th, 2015.
-
Chenery, H. B., & Strout, A. M. (1966). Foreign Assistance and Economic Development. The American Economic Review, 56(4), 679-733.
-
Chinn, & Ito. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions—ScienceDirect. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387805001409
-
Cobb, C.W. & Douglas, P.H. (1928). A Theory of Production. American Economic Review, 18, 139-165.
-
Crockett, A. (1997). Why is financial stability a goal of public policy? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 82, 5-22.
-
Curwin, K. D., & Mahutga, M. C. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Post-Socialist Transition Countries. Social Forces, 92(3), 1159-1187. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/sot128
-
Durham, J. B. (2004). Absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth. European Economic Review, 48(2), 285-306. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00264-7
-
Easterly, W. (2003). Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (3): 23-48.
-
ECB (2005). Financial Stability Review, June 2005
-
ERP (2006): Economic Report of the President. Government printing press USA
-
Evans, K. (2002). Foreign portfolio and direct investment: Complementarity, differences and integration. Paper Prepared on the Global Forum on International Investment in Shanghai.
-
Grubel, H. G. (1968). Internationally Diversified Portfolios: Welfare Gains and Capital Flows. The American Economic Review, 58(5), 1299-1314.
-
Hansen, B.E. (1999). Threshold effect in non-dinamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Jourrnal of Econometrics, 93, 345-368.
-
Harvey, C. R. (1991). The world price of covariance risk. The Journal of Finance, 46(1), 111-157.
-
Hermes, N., & Lensink, R. (2003). Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Studies, 40(1), 142-163.
-
IMF (2006). Global Financial Stability Report, April 2006: Market Developments and Issues.
-
Keynes, J. M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. By (London: Macmillan. 1936. Pp. 403. 5s.)
-
Kuznets, S. (1955). International Differences in Capital Formation and Financing. In Capital Formation and Economic Growth (pp. 19-111). Princeton University Press. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/capital-formation-and-economic-growth/international-differences-capital-formation-and-financing
-
Lê Thị Lanh, Huỳnh Thị Cẩm Hà & Lê Thị Hồng Minh (2015). Tác động của các chỉ số kinh tế vĩ mô đến dòng vốn đầu tư gián tiếp nước ngoài (FPI) tại Việt Nam. Tạp chí Phát triển và hội nhập, 20(30), tháng 01-02/2015.
-
Lee, C. & Chang, C. (2009). FDI, financial development, and economic growth: international evidence. Journal of Applied Economics, XII(2) (November 2009), 249-271.
-
Lipsey, R. G., Carlaw, K. I., & Bekar, C. T. (2005). Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long-Term Economic Growth. OUP Oxford.
-
Mensah, D., Aboagye, A. Q., Abor, J. Y., & Kyereboah-Coleman, A. (2017). External debt among HIPCs in Africa: Accounting and panel VAR analysis of some determinants. Journal of Economic Studies.
-
Nwaogu, U. G., & Ryan, M. J. (2015). FDI, Foreign Aid, Remittance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Review of Development Economics, 19(1), 100-115.
-
Obstfeld, M. (2009). International finance and growth in developing countries: what have we learned? IMF staff papers, 56(1), 63-111.
-
Olagbaju, I. O., & Akinlo, A. E. (2018). FDI and Economic Growth Relationship In Sub-Saharan Africa: Is The Domestic Financial System A Significant Intermediator? Archives of Business Research, 6(5), 90-112.
-
Ricardo, D. (1817/1888). Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. In The Works of David Ricardo, J. R. McCulloch, ed. London: John Murray, pp. 1-584.
-
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), Part 2. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/261725
-
Samuelson, P. A. (1948). International Trade and the Equalisation of Factor Prices. The Economic Journal, 58(230), 163-184. https://doi.org/10.2307/2225933
-
Schinasi, G. J. (2004). Defining financial stability. IMF Working Papers 2004/187, International Monetary Fund.
-
Singhania, M., & Saini, N. (2018). Determinants of FPI in developed and developing countries. Global Business Review, 19(1), 187-213.
-
Smaga, P. (2014). The concept of systemic risk. Systemic Risk Centre Special Paper, (5).
-
Smith, A. (n.d.). The Wealth of Nations (1776). 3.
-
Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
-
Yeboua, K. (2019). Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth in Africa: Evidence from threshold modeling. Transnational Corporations Review, 11(3), 179-189. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2019.1640014.
Influence of Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Financial Stability
Abstract:
The study focuses on the financial stability’s role in the effect of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows on economic growth in developing countries. The data of 55 economies over the period 2010-2021 was analyzed with the Threshold AutoRegressive model (TAR). It is concluded that there is a threshold value of financial stability which makes the effect of FPI on economic growth change. The thresholds found differ when financial stability is measured by FINSTAB1 and FINSTAB2, in case of including or excluding the interaction variable. FPI only positively influences economic growth when financial stability measured by FINSTAB1 is equal to or greater than the threshold value and with the effect of FINSTAB1. FPI also has the same effect on growth when financial stability measured by FINSTAB2 is greater than or equal to the threshold value. This result consolidates the financial stability’s role as an absorbing factor of the positive effect of FPI.