SỐ 209 | Tháng 8/2023
Ảnh hưởng tương tác giữa độ mở thương mại và bất định tỷ giá hối đoái đến đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài
Lê Thông Tiến
Tóm tắt:
Bài nghiên cứu sử dụng mô hình dữ liệu bảng, bao gồm 99 quốc gia để nghiên cứu về ảnh hưởng tương tác của độ mở thương mại (ĐMTM) và bất định tỷ giá hối đoái đến đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) trong giai đoạn 2008–2020. Kết quả nghiên cứu dựa trên việc phân loại các quốc gia theo thu nhập. Để đảm bảo tính vững cho các suy diễn thống kê, bài nghiên cứu sử dụng đồng thời mô hình hiệu ứng ngẫu nhiên (REM), mô hình hiệu ứng cố định (FEM) và mô hình bình phương bé nhất tổng quát (GLS). Kết quả nghiên cứu cho rằng, ảnh hưởng tương tác làm gia tăng tác động ngược chiều của bất định tỷ giá hối đoái; đồng thời làm suy yếu tác động cùng chiều của ĐMTM ở nhóm các quốc gia có thu nhập trung bình thấp. Ở cả nhóm quốc gia có thu nhập trung bình cao và nhóm các quốc gia có thu nhập cao, ảnh hưởng tương tác lại có tác động tích cực của ĐMTM đối với FDI. Hơn nữa, ảnh hưởng ngược chiều của bất định tỷ giá hối đoái ở nhóm quốc gia có thu nhập cao có thể bị triệt tiêu và đảo chiều nếu quốc gia tiếp tục duy trì ĐMTM ở mức cao.
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Interactive Effects Between Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment
Abstract:
The study employed a panel data model covering 99 countries to study the interactive effects of trade openness and exchange rate volatility on FDI over the period from 2008 to 2020. The countries in the observed sample were categorized by income. For checking the robustness of the statistical inferences, the random effects model (REM), the fixed effects model (FEM) and the general least squares model (GLS) were synchronously utilized. The results of the study found statistical evidence that the interaction effect increased the negative impact of exchange rate volatility and weakened the positive effect of trade openness in lower middle-income countries. In both the upper middle-income countries and the high-income countries, the interaction effect increased the positive effect of trade openness on FDI. Moreover, the negative effect of exchange rate volatility in high-income countries also showed that it could be eliminated and reversed if the countries continue to maintain a high level of trade openness.