SỐ 214+215 | Tháng 01+02/2024
Ảnh hưởng tương tác giữa bất định tỷ giá hối đoái và phát triển tài chính đến đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài: Bằng chứng quốc tế
Lê Thông Tiến, Phạm Thị Tuyết Trinh, Nguyễn Minh Sáng
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm kiểm tra ảnh hưởng tương tác giữa bất định tỷ giá hối đoái (TGHĐ) và phát triển tài chính (PTTC) đến đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) ở những chế độ TGHĐ khác nhau với bộ dữ liệu bao gồm 114 quốc gia giai đoạn 2000–2021 và được phân loại thành nhóm quốc gia có theo chế độ neo mềm và nhóm quốc gia có theo chế độ thả nổi. Thông qua phương pháp hồi quy tuyến tính Bayes cho mô hình hiệu ứng ngẫu nhiên, kết quả cho thấy ở nhóm các quốc gia có chế độ neo mềm, ảnh hưởng tương tác làm giảm ảnh hưởng ngược chiều của bất định TGHĐ, thậm chí làm đảo chiều ảnh hưởng này đối với FDI; đồng thời PTTC của một quốc gia càng cao thì gia tăng xác suất cùng chiều của tác động biên của bất định TGHĐ. Đối với nhóm các quốc gia có chế độ thả nổi, ảnh hưởng tương tác làm giảm ảnh hưởng cùng chiều của bất định TGHĐ đối với FDI và PTTC của một quốc gia cao thì tác động biên cùng chiều có xu hướng giảm. Từ đó, các gợi ý chính sách được đề xuất để thu hút FDI. Đối với chế độ neo mềm, các quốc gia cần tăng cường kiểm soát chặt chẽ bất định TGHĐ và đẩy mạnh sự phát triển của thị trường tài chính và các định chế tài chính. Đối với chế độ thả nổi, các quốc gia nên tiếp tục nới lỏng TGHĐ và tập trung duy trì sự ổn định hệ thống tài chính.
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Interactive Effects between Exchange Rate Volatility and Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment: The International Evidence
Abstract:
The aim of this paper was to study the interactive influence between exchange rate volatility and financial development on foreign direct investment in different exchange rate regimes. The research dataset covered 114 countries from 2000 to 2021 and was classified into countries with a soft pegged exchange rate regime and countries with a floating exchange rate regime. The article utilized the Bayesian random-effect model to estimate the empirical models and make statistical inferences. In the group of countries with a soft pegged exchange rate regime, the interaction term could minimize the negative effect of exchange rate volatility, even reversing this effect on foreign direct investment, depending on financial development. The higher the financial development of a country, the greater the positive probability of the marginal impact of exchange rate volatility. In the group of countries with a floating exchange rate regime, the interaction term reduced the positive effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment. The higher a country's financial development, the lower its positive marginal effect. According to the posterior mean, the marginal effects of exchange rate volatility in both groups of countries were likely positive rather than negative. For the group of countries with a soft pegged exchange rate regime, countries need to strengthen strict control of exchange rate volatility and promote the development of financial markets and financial institutions. For the group of countries with a floating exchange rate regime, countries should loosen their exchange rate policies and focus on stabilizing their financial systems.