Số 166+ 167 | Tháng 01+ 02
Chi tiêu công tác động đến tăng trưởng kinh tế của các tỉnh, thành vùng kinh tế trọng điểm phía Nam
Trần Thị Kim Oanh, Phạm Thanh Truyền, Nguyễn Chí Cường
Tóm tắt:
Nghiên cứu này đánh giá tác động của chi tiêu công (CTC) đến tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) của các tỉnh, thành Vùng kinh tế trọng điểm phía Nam (VKTTĐPN), gồm thành phố Hồ Chí Minh, Bình Phước, Tây Ninh, Bình Dương, Đồng Nai, Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu, Long An và Tiền Giang. Nhóm tác giả thực hiện hồi quy tuyến tính và phi tuyến bằng kỹ thuật ước lượng mô moment tổng quát hệ thống (SGMM) với không gian tám tỉnh, thành VKTTĐPN trong giai đoạn 2005–2018. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy: (i) các tỉnh, thành có quy mô CTC càng lớn thì tốc độ TTKT càng chậm; (ii) mức độ tác động của các thành phần trong cơ cấu CTC đến TTKT là khác nhau – trong khi chi tiêu thường xuyên có tác động tích cực đến TTKT, ngược lại chi đầu tư phát triển có tác động tiêu cực đến TTKT; và (iii) ngưỡng CTC trên GDP tối ưu của các tỉnh, thành VKTTĐPN là 11,16%. Ngoài ra, bài viết xác định ngưỡng của chi đầu tư phát triển trên GDP và ngưỡng của chi thường xuyên trên GDP của các tỉnh, thành VKTTĐPN lần lượt là 3,44% và 7,85%.
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The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth of the Key Southern Provinces
Abstract:
This research studies the impact of public expenditures on economic growth in the key southern provinces (including Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Phuoc, Tay Ninh, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Long An and Tien Giang). By linear and non-linear regression, and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) treatment technique within the above eight key southern economic regions in the period of 2005–2018, the research outcomes are as the followings: (i) the larger scale of public expenditures is, the slower economic can grow; (ii) different components of public expenditure structure have diverse impact directions on economic growth in which recurrent spending has a positive effect while cost of development investment shows a negative effect on economic growth; (iii) a detailed threshold to optimal GDP of the above key southern provinces is estimated at 11.16%. The research also identifies the threshold of development investment and recurrent expenditure to GDP of the key southern regions is 3.44% and 7.85% respectively.