Tóm tắt:
Vào năm 2020, đại dịch Covid-19 đã lan rộng trên toàn thế giới. Để giảm thiểu sự lây lan của dịch bệnh, các chính sách phong tỏa khác nhau đã được thực hiện ở nhiều khu vực. Trong đó, lĩnh vực dầu khí cũng chịu ảnh hưởng nhất định từ sự kiện trên. Trong bối cảnh đó, nhóm tác giả sử dụng các kiểm định và lựa chọn phương pháp tác động ngẫu nhiên để tìm hiểu tác động của Covid-19 đến các doanh nghiệp niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán (TTCK) tại Sở Giao dịch Chứng khoán Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (HOSE) và Sở Giao dịch Chứng khoán Hà Nội (HNX). Mẫu dữ liệu được thu thập từ tháng 01/2018 đến tháng 3/2022. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng, đại dịch Covid-19 có tác động ngược chiều đến giá cổ phiếu và lợi nhuận các công ty. Đồng thời, kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy việc tiêm ngừa vắc xin và giãn cách xã hội đã mang lại một số lợi ích nhất định.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
- Ahmad. A. H.. & Masan. S. (2015). Dynamic relationships between oil revenue. government spending and economic growth in Oman. International Journal of Business Economic Development. 3(2). 93-115.
- Ahmad. W.. Kutan. A. M.. & Gupta. S. (2021). Black swan events and Covid-19 outbreak: Sector level evidence from the US. UK. and European stock markets. International Review of Economics Finance research letters. 75. 546-557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.04.007.
- Ajmera. R.. Kook. N.. & Grilley. J. (2012). Impact of commodity price movements on CPI inflation. Monthly Lab. Rev.. 135. 29.
- Akhtaruzzaman. M.. Boubaker. S.. Chiah. M.. & Zhong. A. (2021). COVID− 19 and oil price risk exposure. Finance research letters. 42. 101882.
- Akinmade. B.. Adedoyin. F. F.. & Bekun. F. V. (2020). The impact of stock market manipulation on Nigeria’s economic performance. Journal of Economic Structures. 9(1). 1-28.
- Alam. M. M.. Wei. H.. & Wahid. A. N. (2021). COVID‐19 outbreak and sectoral performance of the Australian stock market: An event study analysis. Australian economic papers. 60(3). 482-495.
- Al-Awadhi. A. M.. Alsaifi. K.. Al-Awadhi. A.. & Alhammadi. S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the Covid-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral Experimental Finance. 27. 100326.
- Anh. D. L. T.. & Gan. C. (2020). The impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on stock market performance: evidence from Vietnam. Journal of Economic Studies.
- Aruga. K.. Islam. M.. & Jannat. A. (2020). Effects of Covid-19 on Indian energy consumption. Sustainability. 12(14). 5616.
- Breusch. T. S.. & Pagan. A. R. J. T. r. o. e. s. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. 47(1). 239-253.
- Bui Thi Men. & Nguyen Minh Hieu. (2021). Determinants Affecting Profitability of Firms: A Study of Oil and Gas Industry in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance. Economics Business Strategy Development. 8(1). 599-608.
- Chang. C.-L.. McAleer. M.. & Wang. Y.-A. (2020). Herding behaviour in energy stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis. SARS. and ongoing Covid-19. Renewable Sustainable Energy Reviews. 134. 110349.
- Charfeddine. L.. & Barkat. K. (2020). Short-and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy. Energy Economics. 86. 104680.
- Chiah. M.. Tian. X.. & Zhong. A. (2022). Lockdown and retail trading in the equity market. Journal of Behavioral Experimental Finance. 33. 100598.
- Connolly. R.. Hanson. P.. & Bradshaw. M. (2020). It’s déjà vu all over again: Covid-19. the global energy market. and the Russian economy. Eurasian Geography Economics. 61(4-5). 511-531.
- Demir. E.. Kizys. R.. Rouatbi. W.. & Zaremba. A. (2021). Covid-19 vaccinations and the volatility of energy companies in international markets. Journal of Risk Financial Management. 14(12). 611.
- Eita. J. H. (2012). Modelling macroeconomic determinants of stock market prices: Evidence from Namibia. Journal of Applied Business Research. 28(5). 871-884.
- Fama. E. F.. & French. K. R. (2017). International tests of a five-factor asset pricing model. Journal of financial Economics. 123(3). 441-463.
- Gao. X.. Ren. Y.. & Umar. M. (2022). To what extent does Covid-19 drive stock market volatility? A comparison between the US and China. conomic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 35(1). 1686-1706.
- Hausman. J. A. J. E. J. o. t. e. s. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. 1251-1271.
- Hirt. M.. Smit. S.. Bradley. C.. Uhlaner. R.. Mysore. M.. Atsmon. Y.. & Northcote. N. (2020). Getting ahead of the next stage of the coronavirus crisis. McKinsey Company. 4.
- Huang. S.. An. H.. Gao. X.. & Huang. X. (2015). Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics its Applications. 434. 13-24.
- Husaini. D. H.. & Lean. H. H. (2021). Asymmetric impact of oil price and exchange rate on disaggregation price inflation. Resources Policy. 73. 102175.
- Kang. H.. An. J.. Kim. H.. Ji. C.. Hong. T.. & Lee. S. (2021). Changes in energy consumption according to building use type under Covid-19 pandemic in South Korea. Renewable Sustainable Energy Reviews. 148. 111294.
- Khalfaoui. R.. Nammouri. H.. Labidi. O.. & Jabeur. S. B. (2021). Is the Covid-19 vaccine effective on the US financial market? Public Health. 198. 177-179.
- Khumalo. J. (2013). Inflation and stock prices interactions in South Africa: VAR analysis. International journal of economics finance studies. 5(2). 23-34.
- Kosmidou. K. (2008). The determinants of banks' profits in Greece during the period of EU financial integration. Managerial finance.
- Lai Cao Mai Phuong. (2021). How Covid-19 impacts Vietnam’s banking stocks: An event study method. Banks and Bank Systems. 16(1). 92-102.
- Mazur. M.. Dang. M.. & Vega. M. (2021). Covid-19 and the march 2020 stock market crash. Evidence from S&P1500. Finance research letters. 38. 101690.
- McKinsey & Company. (2020). Oil and gas after Covid-19: The day of reckoning or a new age of opportunity? truy cập tại https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/oil-and-gas-after-covid-19-the-day-of-reckoning-or-a-new-age-of-opportunity
- Mohiuddin. O.. Asumadu-Sarkodie. S.. & Obaidullah. M. (2016). The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions. energy consumption. and GDP: A recent evidence from Pakistan. Cogent Engineering. 3(1). 1210491.
- Mugaloglu. E.. Polat. A. Y.. Tekin. H.. & Dogan. A. (2021). Oil price shocks during the Covid-19 pandemic: evidence from United Kingdom energy stocks. Energy Research Letters. 2(1). 24253.
- Nguyễn Hoàng Nam. (2021). Tác động của đại dịch Covid–19 đến hoạt động kinh tế tại Việt Nam.
- Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Linh. (2021). Covid-19 và giá cổ phiếu của các ngân hàng thương mại: Nghiên cứu trường hợp Việt Nam. Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Kinh doanh Châu Á. 32(5). 41-58.
- Nguyễn Thị Thùy Hương. & Nguyễn Hữu Huân. (2022). Tác động của dịch Covid-19 đến hiệu quả hoạt động của ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam. Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Kinh tế và Kinh doanh Châu Á(JED. Vol. 33 (5)).
- Nguyễn Văn Anh Đức. Thân Thạch Thảo. Đinh Viết Giang. & Bùi Thanh Hiền. (2021). Ảnh hưởng của cấu trúc tài chính đến hiệu quả kinh doanh của các doanh nghiệp dầu khí niêm yết tại Việt Nam.
- Nguyen. H. T.. & Nguyen. A. H. (2020). Determinants of Firm Capital Structure: Empirical Evidence From Vietnam. International Journal of Financial Research. 11(4). 10-22.
- Nguyen. T. N.. Nguyen. D. T.. & Nguyen. V. N. (2020). The impacts of oil price and exchange rate on Vietnamese stock market. The Journal of Asian Finance. Economics Business. 7(8). 143-150.
- Nguyen. T. T.. Nguyen. V. C.. & Tran. T. N. (2020). Oil price shocks against stock return of oil-and gas-related firms in the economic depression: A new evidence from a copula approach. Cogent Economics. 8(1). 1799908.
- OECD (2022). The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on creative industries. cultural institutions. education and research. truy cập tại https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-territorial-impact-of-covid-19-managing-the-crisis-and-recovery-across-levels-of-government-a2c6abaf/
- Polemis. M.. & Soursou. S. (2020). Assessing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Greek energy firms: an event study analysis. Energy Research Letters. 1(3). 17238.
- Prabheesh. K.. Padhan. R.. & Garg. B. (2020). Covid-19 and the oil price–stock market nexus: Evidence from net oil-importing countries. Energy Research Letters. 1(2). 13745.
- Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế. (2022). World Economic Outlook [Press release]
- Rouatbi. W.. Demir. E.. Kizys. R.. & Zaremba. A. (2021). Immunizing markets against the pandemic: Covid-19 vaccinations and stock volatility around the world. International Review of Financial Analysis. 77. 101819.
- Shaikh. I. (2022). Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the energy markets. Economic Change Restructuring. 55(1). 433-484.
- Shen. H.. Fu. M.. Pan. H.. Yu. Z.. & Chen. Y. (2020). The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm performance. Emerging Markets Finance Trade. 56(10). 2213-2230.
- Tran Quoc Viet. & Pham Van Chat. (2016). An overview of Vietnam’s oil and gas industry. Petrovietnam Journal. 10. 64-71.
- Truong. D. X. (2015). Determinants of profitability-A case study of oil and gas firms listed on Vietnam stock market. HCMC-International University.
- Vidya. C.. & Prabheesh. K. (2020). Implications of Covid-19 pandemic on the global trade networks. Emerging Markets Finance Trade. 56(10). 2408-2421.
- Võ Đình Trí (2021). Giá dầu. lạm phát và Việt Nam. truy cập tại https://mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/ttncdtbh/pages_r/l/chi-tiet-tin?dDocName=MOFUCM197583
- Wang. Q.. Li. S.. Zhang. M.. & Li. R. (2022). Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on oil consumption in the United States: A new estimation approach. Energy. 239. 122280.
- Wattanatorn. W.. & Kanchanapoom. T. (2012). Oil prices and profitability performance: Sector analysis. Procedia-Social Behavioral Sciences. 40. 763-767.
- World Bank (2018). Commodity markets outlook: The changing of the guard: Trends in commodity demand over the past 20 years. truy cập tại https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/678081540845321639/pdf/Commodity-Markets-Outlook-The-Changing-of-the-Guard-Shifts-in-Commodity-Demand.pdf
- World Bank (2020). Cheap Oil during the Covid-19 Pandemic. truy cập tại https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/284371594670190475/pdf/Adding-Fuel-to-the-Fire-Cheap-Oil-during-the-Covid-19-Pandemic.pdf
- World Bank (2020). The Global Economic Outlook During the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Changed World. truy cập tại https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world
- World Bank (2021). Global Economy to Expand by 4% in 2021; Vaccine Deployment and Investment Key to Sustaining the Recovery. truy cập tại https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/01/05/global-economy-to-expand-by-4-percent-in-2021-vaccine-deployment-and-investment-key-to-sustaining-the-recovery
- Yamini. Y. (2020). The Impact of Covid-19 on the Stock Returns of Companies of Oil & Gas Industry of G7 Nations. International Journal of Management. 11(11).
- Zhang. D.. Li. H.. Zhu. H.. Zhang. H.. Goh. H. H.. Wong. M. C.. & Wu. T. (2021). Impact of Covid-19 on urban energy consumption of commercial tourism city. Sustainable Cities Society. 73. 103133.
- Zhang. H.. Chen. J.. & Shao. L. (2021). Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of Covid-19. International Review of Financial Analysis. 77. 101828.
Abstract:
Since 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has spread worldwide. To reduce the spread of Covid-19, various blockade policies have been implemented in many areas. In particular, the Covid-19 pandemic has also affected the oil and gas sector. In this context, the authors conduct research, use tests, and choose the random effects method to understand the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX). Data were collected from January 2018 to March 2022. The results indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the stock prices and profits of the companies. In particular, the findings show that vaccination and social distancing have brought certain benefits.