Số 173 | THÁNG 8/2020
Tác động của kiều hối, phát triển tài chính đến tăng trưởng kinh tế ở các quốc gia châu Á – Thái Bình Dương
Diệp Gia Luật, Công Thị Mai Thảo
Tóm tắt:
Trong những năm gần đây, kiều hối trở thành nguồn thu ngoại tệ quan trọng và ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến cán cân vãng lai cũng như các hoạt động kinh tế của nhiều quốc gia. Tuy nhiên, có nhiều tranh cãi về mối quan hệ giữa kiều hối và các chỉ số phát triển tài chính (PTTC) với tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) của một quốc gia. Dựa trên bộ dữ liệu của 28 quốc gia thuộc khu vực châu Á – Thái Bình Dương giai đoạn 1995–2018, sử dụng phương pháp OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) và TSLS (Two Stage Least Squares) với các kiểu hồi quy gộp, hồi quy theo hiệu ứng cố định và hiệu ứng ngẫu nhiên, nghiên cứu này cung cấp các bằng chứng thực nghiệm tác động của kiều hối và PTTC đến TTKT. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, kiều hối có mối tương quan âm đến nền kinh tế và dẫn đến kìm hãm sự TTKT; đồng thời, tỷ lệ tín dụng ở khu vực tư nhân cũng có tác động nghịch chiều lên biến TTKT và chỉ số PTTC cũng có tác động lên sự phát triển kinh tế.
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The Impacts of Remittance and Financial Development on the Economic Growths of Asia-Pacific Countries
Abstract:
In recent years, remittance has become an essential source of foreign income, and influenced remarkably into the current account as well as the economies of many nations, however, the controversy of the relationship between remittance and financial development index towards any national economic growth. Using a database from 28 countries of Asia – Pacific region from 1995 to 2018, the methods of OLS and 2SLS have been captured, and analysis of regressions was utilized to unveil the evidence of the effectiveness of remittance and financial development into economic growth. The results showed that remittances had a negative influence on the economy, which can be seen as the constraint of economic growth, besides credit ratio in the private sector also harmed economic development, and the financial development index had influenced the economy as well.