Tạp chí đã xuất bản
2004
ISSN
ISSN 2615-9813
ISSN (số cũ) 1859-3682

SỐ 175 | THÁNG 10/2020

Tác động của chính sách an toàn vĩ mô và chính sách tiền tệ đến rủi ro ngân hàng tại nhóm nước Eagle – Cách tiếp cận Bayes

Nguyễn Trần Xuân Linh, Nguyễn Ngọc Tân

Tóm tắt:

Nghiên cứu được thực hiện để đánh giá tác động của chính sách tiền tệ (CSTT) và chính sách an toàn vĩ mô (CSATVM) đến rủi ro ngân hàng tại các quốc gia có nền kinh tế mới nổi và dẫn dắt tăng trưởng kinh tế thế giới (Emerging and growth-leading economies – EAGLE). Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, lãi suất, mức cung tiền và tăng trưởng tín dụng làm tăng rủi ro ngân hàng, trong khi tỷ lệ vốn điều lệ cấp 1 so với tài sản điều chỉnh theo trọng số rủi ro cải thiện sự ổn định của ngân hàng tại nhóm nước EAGLE. Kết quả nghiên cứu cũng cho thấy, sự tương tác giữa CSTT và CSATVM làm tăng rủi ro của ngân hàng, nhưng xác suất là tương đối thấp.

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The Effect of Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy on Bank Risk in Eagle Group - Bayes Approach

Abstract:

This research aims to evaluate the impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on bank risk in the Emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLE). The results show that interest rate, M2 money supply growth, and credit growth intensify bank risk; regulatory capital to risk weighted assets improve banking stability in the EAGLE group. This study also reveals that the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy increase bank risk, but the probability of this event is relatively low.