Số 214+215_Tiếp theo | Tháng 01+02_Tiếp Theo
Tác động của đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số đối với sự phát triển hệ thống tài chính tại các quốc gia Thị trường chung Đông và Nam Phi (COMESA)
Charles O. Manasseh, Ifeoma C. Nwakoby, Ogochukwu C. Okanya, Nnenna G. Nwonye, Onuselogu Odidi, Kesuh Jude Thaddeus, Kenechukwu K. Ede, Williams Nzidee
Tóm tắt:
Mục đích – Bài viết này nhằm mục đích đánh giá tác động của đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số đối với sự phát triển hệ thống tài chính tại Thị trường chung Đông và Nam Phi (COMESA). Bài viết này đánh giá mối quan hệ năng động giữa các biện pháp đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số và phát triển hệ thống tài chính bằng cách sử dụng dữ liệu chuỗi thời gian từ các quốc gia COMESA trong giai đoạn 1997–2019.
Thiết kế/phương pháp/cách tiếp cận – Một mô hình độ trễ phân phối tự hồi quy (ARDL) đã được áp dụng và nhóm trung bình (MG), nhóm trung bình gộp (PMG) và hiệu ứng cố định động (DFE) của mô hình được ước tính để đánh giá tác động ngắn hạn và dài hạn. Ngoài ra, phương pháp mômen tổng quát động (DGMM) đã được áp dụng để kiểm tra độ bền. Kết quả kiểm định Hausman cho thấy PMG là công cụ ước lượng phù hợp và hiệu quả nhất, trong khi hệ số biến phụ thuộc có độ trễ của các GMM khác nhau nhỏ hơn hệ số ảnh hưởng cố định, và do đó, cho thấy GMM hệ thống là công cụ ước lượng phù hợp nhất. Dữ liệu cho nghiên cứu được lấy từ Chỉ số Phát triển của Ngân hàng Thế giới (WDI, 2020), Chỉ số Quản trị Thế giới (WGI, 2020) và Cơ sở dữ liệu Phát triển Tài chính Toàn cầu của Ngân hàng Thế giới (GFD, 2020).
Những phát hiện mới – Kết quả cho thấy đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số tác động đáng kể đến sự phát triển hệ thống tài chính về lâu dài. Như vậy, bằng chứng cho thấy máy rút tiền tự động (ATM), điểm bán hàng (POS), thanh toán di động (MP) và ngân hàng di động có ý nghĩa quan trọng và đóng góp tích cực vào sự phát triển hệ thống tài chính về lâu dài, trong khi tiền di động (MM) và Ngân hàng trực tuyến (INB) không đáng kể nhưng thể hiện mối quan hệ tích cực và nghịch đảo với phát triển tài chính. Nghiên cứu sâu hơn cho thấy rằng chất lượng thể chế và môi trường kinh tế vĩ mô ổn định bao gồm cả yếu tố tương tác của chúng là rất quan trọng trong việc dự đoán sự phát triển hệ thống tài chính ở khu vực COMESA.
Ý nghĩa thực tiễn – Các nhà nghiên cứu đề xuất một chính sách gắn kết và có ý thức nhằm kiểm soát sự khác biệt trong ngắn hạn và đề xuất một chiến lược tài chính đổi mới chung trong khu vực có thể theo đuổi nhằm khuyến khích chuyển giao công nghệ cần thiết nhằm thúc đẩy phát triển hệ thống tài chính về lâu dài. Hơn nữa, những đổi mới sản phẩm và quy trình hợp lý có thể được điều chỉnh để bổ sung cho các thể chế đổi mới trong các thành phần khác nhau của hệ thống tài chính COMESA.
Tác động xã hội – Dịch vụ đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số nếu được quản lý tốt sẽ làm tăng lợi ích vốn có trong phát triển hệ thống tài chính.
Tính mới/giá trị nguyên bản – Theo hiểu biết tốt nhất của tác giả, bài viết này trình bày thông tin cơ bản mới về đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số có thể kích thích sự phát triển của hệ thống tài chính, đặc biệt là ở khu vực COMESA. Nó cũng cho thấy sự liên quan của đổi mới tài chính kỹ thuật số, chất lượng thể chế và môi trường kinh tế vĩ mô ổn định cũng như tác động tương tác của chúng đối với sự phát triển hệ thống tài chính COMESA.
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Impact of Digital Financial Innovation on Financial System Development in Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) Countries
Abstract:
Purpose – This paper aims to assess the impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). This paper evaluates the dynamic relationship between digital financial innovation measures and financial system development using time series data from COMESA countries for the period 1997–2019.
Design/methodology/approach – A dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was adopted and the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) of the model were estimated to evaluate the short- and long-run impact. In addition, the dynamic generalized method of moments (DGMM) was adopted for a robustness check. The Hausman test results show PMG to be the most consistent and efficient estimator, while the coefficient of lagged dependent variable of different GMM is less than the fixed effect coefficient, and, as such, suggests system GMM is the most suitable estimator. Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development Indicator (WDI, 2020), World Governance Indicator (WGI, 2020) and World Bank Global Financial Development Database (GFD, 2020).
Findings – The result shows that digital financial innovation significantly impacts financial system development in the long run. As such, the evidence revealed that automated teller machines (ATMs), point of sale (POS), mobile payments (MP) and mobile banking are significant and contribute positively to financial system development in the long run, while mobile money (MM) and Internet banking (INB) are insignificant but exhibit positive and inverse relationship with financial development respectively. Further investigation revealed that institutional quality and a stable macroeconomic environment including their interactive term are significantly imperative in predicting financial system development in the COMESA region.
Practical implications – Researchers recommend a cohesive and conscious policy that would checkmate the divergence in the short run and suggest a common regional innovative financial strategy that could be pursued to incentivize technology transfer needed to promote financial system development in the long run. More so, plausible product and process innovations may be adapted to complement innovative institutions in the different components of the COMESA financial system.
Social implications – Digital financial innovation services if well managed increase the inherent benefits in financial system development.
Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents new background information on digital financial innovation that may stimulate the development of the financial system, particularly in the COMESA region. It also exposes the relevance of digital financial innovation, institutional quality and stable macroeconomic environment as well as their interactive effect on COMESA financial system development.